Thursday, April 13, 2006
It's still the oil,
I had to take another crack at Kevin Phillips excellent book, 'American Theocracy.' Seems in my hurry to get to the four chapters grouped under 'Too Many Preachers', I had only skimmed the first three regarding oil. To this day, he claims, important people look at maps of the Middle East that don't have the lines of national borders drawn upon them, but square divisions that demarcate oil reserves and the internation corporations which lay claim to them. These sort of maps have existed since the '20s. These were the maps that Vice President Dick Cheney's National Energy Policy Development Group employed in that notoriously secret meeting in 2001.
Here is a block quote from Phillips' elucidating the matter:
Well, that region of the world has been either under attack, crushing sanctions, or recovering from either for about the last hundred years. Still, that comparision between the 2,300 wells in Iraq and the million in Texas really got my attention.
Oh, and I read a few neo-conned bloggers lately who have been making the silly arguement that, since oil production in Iraq has gone down since we invaded, that must mean that oil was not our primary objective. First, that implies that our military force and strategists are omnipotent, capable of molding reality into whatever outcome they desire. Without a doubt, the U.S. military is as close to omnipotence as any fighting force has ever been. Those who oppose the will of the U.S. military must either be true believers or completely backed into a cornor, cuz they are going to become martyrs to their cause. Yet, unquestioned superiority on the battlefield does not lead to an easy occupation. Thus the fact that we have not yet secured the oil infrastructure to the levels necessary for increased production may not be salient. In fact, I would argue that this point supports my second observation. The oil under Iraq is not called 'reserves' for nothing. So what if the oil is not flowing out and cash in right now? That oil's not going anywhere (unless the Kuwaiti's start that horizontal drilling again.) If it is worth $50 dollars a barrel today, it will be worth $70 a barrel in five years. That's where the permenent military bases come in.
Every day that Iraq starves for oil revenue is another good day for the oil conglomerates. If you had to choose which society you were going to bargin for a percentage of the oil profits, would you want a stable, educated society where these issues were well discussed and understood? Or would you rather deal with a group of fractious tribes whose priorities revolve around escaping murder and murdering those who have wronged you - groups who can easily be turned against each other for an edge in the technology of death? I believe Nigeria made a bit of a stir in the news a few weeks ago, having reached the fifty-year anniversary of petroleom extraction from their country. While the value of oil removed was somewhere in the hundreds of billions, Nigeria remains one of the poorest countries in the world. I'd say there was a corporate strategy there.
[ * Leonardo Maugeri, "The Virgin Oil Fields of Iraq.' Newsweek, July 5, 2004. ]
Here is a block quote from Phillips' elucidating the matter:
What these maps left unsaid was how relatively untouched - or at least untapped- the Iraqi fields were. But Cheney's team would presumably have studied the history of Iraqi oil output. Since the turn of the twentieth century, later explained Leonardo Maugeri, a senior vice president at the Italian oil and gas company ENI, "Only 2,300 wells have been drilled in Iraq, compared with about 1 million in Texas. A large part of the country - the western desert area - is still mainly unexplored. Iraq has never implemented advanced technologies - like 3-D seismic exploration techniques or deep and horizontal drilling - to find or tap new wells. Of more that 80 oilfields discovered in Iraq, only about 21 have been at least partially developed . . . [I]t is realistic to assume that Iraq has far more oil reserves than documented so far - probably about 200 billion barrels more."* Not a few geologists suspected that the former Mesopotamia might have more left than Saudi Arabia. (p. 77)
Well, that region of the world has been either under attack, crushing sanctions, or recovering from either for about the last hundred years. Still, that comparision between the 2,300 wells in Iraq and the million in Texas really got my attention.
Oh, and I read a few neo-conned bloggers lately who have been making the silly arguement that, since oil production in Iraq has gone down since we invaded, that must mean that oil was not our primary objective. First, that implies that our military force and strategists are omnipotent, capable of molding reality into whatever outcome they desire. Without a doubt, the U.S. military is as close to omnipotence as any fighting force has ever been. Those who oppose the will of the U.S. military must either be true believers or completely backed into a cornor, cuz they are going to become martyrs to their cause. Yet, unquestioned superiority on the battlefield does not lead to an easy occupation. Thus the fact that we have not yet secured the oil infrastructure to the levels necessary for increased production may not be salient. In fact, I would argue that this point supports my second observation. The oil under Iraq is not called 'reserves' for nothing. So what if the oil is not flowing out and cash in right now? That oil's not going anywhere (unless the Kuwaiti's start that horizontal drilling again.) If it is worth $50 dollars a barrel today, it will be worth $70 a barrel in five years. That's where the permenent military bases come in.
Every day that Iraq starves for oil revenue is another good day for the oil conglomerates. If you had to choose which society you were going to bargin for a percentage of the oil profits, would you want a stable, educated society where these issues were well discussed and understood? Or would you rather deal with a group of fractious tribes whose priorities revolve around escaping murder and murdering those who have wronged you - groups who can easily be turned against each other for an edge in the technology of death? I believe Nigeria made a bit of a stir in the news a few weeks ago, having reached the fifty-year anniversary of petroleom extraction from their country. While the value of oil removed was somewhere in the hundreds of billions, Nigeria remains one of the poorest countries in the world. I'd say there was a corporate strategy there.
[ * Leonardo Maugeri, "The Virgin Oil Fields of Iraq.' Newsweek, July 5, 2004. ]
Comments:
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Of course it's about the oil, but *what* about the oil is it? Your observation that holding it will drive up short term prices to the advantage of US oil is one ( first order devious ) possibility. But OTOH , Bush is a tool of investment banks as much as of oil, and the military industry too. Not all of thier interests would be served by significantly higher prices. Who's pushing for what, and who's got the tightest grip on Bush's balls ?( so to speak :)
I wish America had a People-type gossip magazine that covered the oligarchy. I could care less about Hollywood, it's the richest 5000 Americans who really matter.
The business pages are the best substitute.
I wish America had a People-type gossip magazine that covered the oligarchy. I could care less about Hollywood, it's the richest 5000 Americans who really matter.
The business pages are the best substitute.
# posted by 
: Monday, April 17, 2006 12:01:00 AM
: Monday, April 17, 2006 12:01:00 AM
Funny how blog-comments work. This would constitute about three hundred words by anonymous that I've now read, and I'm liking him a lot more already. These are good points, at the metaphor regarding his scrotum be enjoyable.
I'd argue that he's most loyal to the energy markets cuz they are the most dynamic. Sure the Military Industrial Complex is important, but they have a huge demand, their contracts are worked our and set in stone for years at a time. Energy markets fluctuate on an hourly basis.
And investment bankers. . . all but the greediest of their kind learned hundreds of years ago to accept their place as a second tier power. I know that the economy has been seriously fucked with in the last thirty years and the financial sector has done incredibly well, but that don't change shit Shylock. They will always be the most vulnerable, and will always be the most conservative (in the good sense of the word.)
I'd argue that he's most loyal to the energy markets cuz they are the most dynamic. Sure the Military Industrial Complex is important, but they have a huge demand, their contracts are worked our and set in stone for years at a time. Energy markets fluctuate on an hourly basis.
And investment bankers. . . all but the greediest of their kind learned hundreds of years ago to accept their place as a second tier power. I know that the economy has been seriously fucked with in the last thirty years and the financial sector has done incredibly well, but that don't change shit Shylock. They will always be the most vulnerable, and will always be the most conservative (in the good sense of the word.)
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# posted by : Wednesday, February 21, 2007 1:01:00 AM
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